Сотрудничество государства и бизнеса при прогнозировании и планировании структурных сдвигов в экономике

Дементьев Виктор Евгеньевич   

Статья опубликована в журнале «Проблемы прогнозирования» (ISSN: 0868-6351 (Print), ISSN: 3034-0071 (Online)), №3 2024

RUEN
СОТРУДНИЧЕСТВО ГОСУДАРСТВА И БИЗНЕСА ПРИ ПРОГНОЗИРОВАНИИ И ПЛАНИРОВАНИИ СТРУКТУРНЫХ СДВИГОВ В ЭКОНОМИКЕ

ДЕМЕНТЬЕВ Виктор Евгеньевич, член-корреспондент РАН, vedementev@rambler.ru, Центральный экономико-математический институт, Российская академия наук, Москва, Россия
ORCID: 0000-0001-5612-3999; Scopus Author ID: 57196096091

Аннотация. Сотрудничество государства и бизнеса в формировании совместного представления о будущем рассматривается в статье как процесс, который позволяет выйти за рамки решения прогнозных задач. Фактически еще до разработки основывающегося на прогнозе индикативного плана создаются предпосылки для скоординированных действий по его реализации. Это особенно важно, когда структурные преобразования в экономике и обществе необходимо осуществлять в условиях жестких ограничений. В статье внимание обращено как на достоинства, так и на риски рассматриваемого сотрудничества. Представлен японский опыт индикативного планирования в период форсированной перестройки структуры экономики. О степени вовлеченности бизнеса в процесс планирования можно судить по составу официальных совещательных органов, где перспективное видение японской экономики во многом и вырабатывалось. В связи с анализом состава российских совещательных органов предложено создание Совета, в котором, наряду с ключевыми министерствами и Банком России, были бы представлены наука и бизнес. Такой Совет призван обеспечить координацию промышленной и денежно-кредитной политики и ускорить структурные сдвиги в российской экономике.

Ключевые слова: прогнозирование, стратегическое планирование, индикативное планирование, координация, сотрудничество, общество 5.0, экономическая политика, структурные сдвиги.

DOI: 10.47711/0868-6351-204-18-29

Статья поступила в редакцию 15.11.2023. Статья принята к публикации 12.12.2023.

Для цитирования: В.Е. Дементьев. Сотрудничество государства и бизнеса при прогнозировании и планировании структурных сдвигов в экономике // Проблемы прогнозирования. 2024. № 3 (204). С. 18-29. DOI: 10.47711/0868-6351-204-18-29

COOPERATION BETWEEN THE STATE AND BUSINESS IN FORECASTING AND PLANNING STRUCTURAL CHANGES IN THE ECONOMY

V.E. DEMENTIEV, Corresponding Member of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Central Economics and Mathematics Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia
ORCID: 0000-0001-5612-3999; Scopus Author ID: 57196096091

Abstract. Cooperation between the state and business in forming a joint vision of the future is considered in the article as a process that allows us to go beyond solving forecast problems. In fact, even before the development of an indicative plan based on the forecast, the prerequisites are created for coordinated actions to implement it. This is especially important when structural changes in the economy and society need to be carried out in conditions of severe restrictions. The article draws attention to both the advantages and risks of the cooperation under consideration. The Japanese experience of indicative planning during the period of forced restructuring of the economic structure is presented. The degree of business involvement in the planning process can be judged by the composition of the official advisory bodies, where the long-term vision of the Japanese economy was largely developed. In connection with the analysis of the composition of Russian advisory bodies, it was proposed to create a Council in which, along with key ministries and the Bank of Russia, science and business would be represented. Such a Council is intended to ensure coordination of industrial and monetary policies and accelerate structural changes in the Russian economy.

Keywords: forecasting, strategic planning, indicative planning, coordination, cooperation, society 5.0, economic policy, structural shifts

DOI: 10.1134/S1075700724030043

Received 15.11.2023. Accepted 12.12.2023.

For citation: V.E. Dementiev. Cooperation Between the State and Business in Forecasting and Planning Structural Changes in the Economy // Studies on Russian Economic Development. 2024. Vol. 35. No. 3. Pp. 328–336. DOI: 10.1134/S1075700724030043

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