Кризис электроэнергетики в странах Евросоюза: динамика, движущие силы и перспективы

Жуков Станислав Вячеславович   Резникова Оксана Бениаминовна   
RUEN
КРИЗИС ЭЛЕКТРОЭНЕРГЕТИКИ В СТРАНАХ ЕВРОСОЮЗА: ДИНАМИКА, ДВИЖУЩИЕ СИЛЫ И ПЕРСПЕКТИВЫ

ЖУКОВ Станислав Вячеславович, чл.-корр. РАН, д.э.н., zhukov@imemo.ru, Национальный исследовательский институт мировой экономики и международных отношений им. Е.М. Примакова Российской академии наук, Москва, Россия
ORCID: 0000-0003-2021-2716

РЕЗНИКОВА Оксана Бениаминовна, к.ист.н., rezxana@yandex.ru, Центр энергетических исследований, Национальный исследовательский институт мировой экономики и международных отношений им. Е.М. Примакова Российской академии наук, Москва, Россия
ORCID: 0000-0002-9742-5026

Аннотация. В большинстве исследований текущего кризиса в электроэнергетике стран Евросоюза предлагается упрощенный подход к трактовке его динамики и причин. В данной статье подход расширен: во-первых, кризис в европейской электроэнергетике рассмотрен с учетом долгосрочных тенденций ее развития. Во-вторых, детально проанализированы главные тренды в динамике развития отдельных секторов электроэнергетики и в разрезе стран – членов Евросоюза. Такой подход позволил сделать следующие принципиальные выводы: кризис в электроэнергетике ЕС начался в 2021 г. и был обусловлен ошибками регуляторов, задавших слишком высокие темпы строительства генерирующих мощностей в «зеленой» энергетике и выводом из эксплуатации мощностей, традиционно обеспечивавших базовую загрузку в системе; кризис 2022 г. был спровоцирован ненадежностью атомной генерации из-за устаревания реакторов, а также сбоем в работе гидроэнергетики из-за долгосрочного изменения климата. Экзогенный шок, порожденный геополитическим кризисом на Украине и вокруг Украины стал важным фактором входа европейской электроэнергетики в затяжной кризис; Еврокомиссия и некоторые крупнейшие европейские страны предложили для выхода из кризиса ускорить строительство генерирующих мощностей в солнечной и ветровой энергетике и при этом переложить издержки энергетического перехода, цена которого заметно выросла, на конечных потребителей электроэнергии. В ЕС есть представительная группа стран, национальные климатические стратегии которых базируются в том числе и на развитии атомной энергетики, что требует развития рынка мощностей; в целом в ЕС цены на электроэнергию перешли на более высокую траекторию, а дальнейшее развитие «зеленой» энергетики будет безальтернативно толкать цены на электроэнергию вверх.

Ключевые слова: электроэнергетика, кризис, новые возобновляемые источники энергии, генерирующие мощности, устройство рынка электроэнергии, рынок мощности, цена энергетического перехода, Евросоюз.

JEL: E3, H23, P11, P18.

DOI: 10.47711/0868-6351-202-90-104

Статья поступила в редакцию 05.06.2023. Статья принята к публикации 18.07.2023.

Для цитирования: С.В. Жуков, О.Б. Резникова. Кризис электроэнергетики в странах Евросоюза: динамика, движущие силы и перспективы // Проблемы прогнозирования. 2024. № 1 (202). С. 90-104. DOI: 10.47711/0868-6351-202-90-104

THE CRISIS OF THE ELECTRICITY SECTOR IN THE EU COUNTRIES: DYNAMICS, DRIVING FORCES, AND PROSPECTS

S.V. ZHUKOV, Corresponding Member of the Russian Academy of Sciences, E.M. Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia
ORCID: 0000-0003-2021-2716

O.B. REZNIKOVA, Cand. Sci. (Hist.), E.M. Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia
ORCID: 0000-0002-9742-5026

Abstract. Most studies of the current crisis in the EU electricity sector offer a simplified approach to the interpretation of its dynamics and causes. In this article, the approach is expanded, i.e., first, the crisis in the European electricity sector is considered taking into account the long-term trends of its development. Second, the main trends in the performance of individual electricity sectors and in the context of EU member countries are analyzed in detail. This approach allowed us to draw the following fundamental conclusions: the crisis in the EU electricity sector began in 2021 and was caused by the mistakes of regulators who excessively urged the construction of generating capacities in «green» energy and decommissioning of capacities that traditionally provided basic loading in the system; the crisis of 2022 was provoked by the unreliability of nuclear generation due to the obsolescence of reactors, as well as the failure of hydropower due to long-term climate change. The exogenous shock generated by the geopolitical crisis in and around Ukraine became an important factor in the outbreak of a protracted crisis in the European electricity sector. The European Commission and some major European countries proposed to accelerate the construction of generating capacities in solar and wind energy to overcome the crisis, while shifting the costs of the energy transition, the price of which has noticeably increased, to end consumers of electricity. There is a representative group of countries in the EU whose national climate strategies are based, among other things, on promoting nuclear energy, which requires the development of the capacity market; in general, energy prices in the EU soared and further development of «green» energy will by all means push electricity prices up.

Keywords: electricity sector, crisis, new renewable energy sources, generating capacities, electricity market structure, capacity market, energy transition price, European Union.

DOI: 10.1134/S1075700724010180

Received 05.06.2023. Accepted 18.07.2023.

For citation: S.V. Zhukov and O.B. Reznikova. The Crisis of the Electricity Sector in the EU Countries: Dynamics, Driving Forces, and Prospects // Studies on Russian Economic Development. 2024. Vol. 35. No. 1. Pp. 60–71.

Статья опубликована в журнале «Проблемы прогнозирования» (ISSN: 0868-6351 (Print), ISSN: 3034-0071 (Online)), №1 2024

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