Трансформация рынка нефти в Европе: тенденции и перспективы

Копытин Иван Александрович   

Статья опубликована в журнале «Проблемы прогнозирования» (ISSN: 0868-6351 (Print), ISSN: 3034-0071 (Online)), №6 2024

RUEN
ТРАНСФОРМАЦИЯ РЫНКА НЕФТИ В ЕВРОПЕ: ТЕНДЕНЦИИ И ПЕРСПЕКТИВЫ

КОПЫТИН Иван Александрович, к.э.н., kopytin@imemo.ru, Национальный исследовательский институт мировой экономики и международных отношений им. Е.М. Примакова Российской академии наук, Москва, Россия
ORCID: 0000-0002-7824-2670, Scopus Author ID: 56035694200

Аннотация. Экзогенный политический шок, вызванный беспрецедентным санкционным давлением Запада на Россию, заметно ускорил процесс передела рынка нефти в Европе, который происходит на фоне снижающегося спроса на нефть в крупнейших европейских экономиках. Показано, что одними из главных бенефициаров передела европейского нефтяного рынка являются крупнейшие мировые вертикально интегрированные нефтегазовые компании, которые не только наращивают экспорт нефти в Европу, но и опираются в условиях обострившейся конкуренции на свои европейские нефтеперерабатывающие мощности. Расширение экспортной ниши крупнейших американских и европейских компаний на падающем рынке является результатом не только рыночной конкуренции, но также и санкций ЕС и стран семерки в отношении импорта российской нефти и нефтепродуктов. Ожидаемые шоки экологического регулирования дополнительно усилят конкуренцию на европейском нефтяном рынке.

Ключевые слова: рынок нефти Европы, импорт нефти, нефтегазовые компании, конкуренция, энергетическая безопасность, экологическое регулирование.

JEL: E3, H23, P11, P18.

DOI: 10.47711/0868-6351-207-217-226

Статья поступила в редакцию 03.06.2024. Статья принята к публикации 28.06.2024.

Для цитирования: И.А. Копытин. Трансформация рынка нефти в Европе: тенденции и перспективы // Проблемы прогнозирования. 2024. № 6(207). С. 217-226. DOI: 10.47711/0868-6351-207-217-226

TRANSFORMATION OF EUROPEAN OIL MARKET: PROSPECTS AND TRENDS

I.A. KOPYTIN, Cand. Sci. (Econ.), Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia
ORCID: 0000-0002-7824-2670, Scopus Author ID: 56035694200

Abstract. The exogenous political shock caused by an unprecedented sanction yoke imposed on Russia by the West has noticeably accelerated the repartition of Europe’s oil market. This process develops in the context of a decreasing demand for oil in major European economies. It is shown that the world’s major vertically integrated oil and gas companies are one of the main beneficiaries of this repartition. Not only do they boost oil exports to Europe but they also rely on their European oil treatment facilities in the context of exacerbated competition. The expansion of the export niche of major US and European companies in the market in decline results not only from market competition but also from the sanctions imposed by the EU and G7 on importing Russian oil and oil products. Expected environmental regulation shocks will make the competition in the European oil market even more intensive.

Keywords: European oil market, oil import, oil and gas companies, competition, energy security, environmental regulation.

DOI: 10.1134/S107570072470045X

Received 03.06.2024. Accepted 28.06.2024.

For citation: I.A. Kopytin. Transformation of European Oil Market: Prospects and Trends // Studies on Russian Economic Development. 2024. Vol. 35. No. 6. Pp. 920-927. DOI: 10.1134/S107570072470045X

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